Rising Risks in Hanoi's Soaring Apartment Prices

HANOI APARTMENT PRICES CONTINUE TO SURGE: POTENTIAL RISKS AND MARKET CONCERNS

PRICE HIKES RETURN AFTER EARLY YEAR STAGNATION
After a period of stagnation in early 2025, Hanoi’s apartment prices have resumed their upward trajectory in recent months, with many projects recording increases of 10–15%. This trend is making homeownership increasingly unattainable for residents while threatening market liquidity and long term sustainability.

HANOI APARTMENT PRICES NEARING HO CHI MINH CITY LEVELS
According to Batdongsan.com.vn, Hanoi’s secondary apartment market shows no signs of cooling despite consecutive price surges. In some projects, price increases are occurring on a weekly basis. By mid July 2025, units at the Hanoi Centerpoint project (Le Van Luong Street, Yen Hoa Ward) were listed at 6.7–6.8 billion VND per unit . Just one month later, average resale prices climbed to 6.8–7 billion VND per unit , marking an increase of 100–200 million VND per unit .

Similarly, at the Home City project (Yen Hoa Ward), a 60 m² unit priced at 5.7 billion VND in mid July now costs 5.85–6 billion VND , with very few remaining units available.

A recent CBRE Vietnam report indicates that the average primary apartment price in Hanoi reached approximately 79 million VND/m² (excluding VAT, maintenance fees, and discounts) by the end of Q2 2025—a 6% quarterly increase and a 33% year on year surge . New projects launched in the first half of 2025, both in central and suburban areas, are priced between 80–170 million VND/m² .

DATA FROM ONE MOUNT GROUP CONFIRMS RAPID PRICE GROWTH
One Mount Group’s real estate report states that Hanoi’s primary apartment prices averaged 80 million VND/m² in Q2 2025 , up 5.6% from the previous quarter and a sharp 24% rise compared to Q2 2024 .

Mr. Tran Minh Tien , Director of the Market Research and Customer Insights Center at One Mount Group, attributes the rapid price escalation to structural shifts in supply and product segmentation . New supply in Q2 2025 was dominated by luxury and high end apartments , averaging over 80 million VND/m² (excluding VAT and maintenance fees). More affordable units (below 65 million VND/m² ) are now scarce, mostly confined to eastern Hanoi or neighboring provinces.

SCARCITY OF SUPPLY FUELS PRICE INCREASES
Experts note that no new projects have been approved for sale recently , with most available units being old inventory from major developers . The dwindling supply of apartments in Hanoi—coupled with strong demand, particularly from young families—has further driven up prices. The imbalance in product segmentation has also pushed both primary and secondary market prices higher.

POTENTIAL RISKS OF SOARING APARTMENT PRICES
Ms. Pham Thi Mien , Vice Director of the Vietnam Real Estate Research Institute, warns that Hanoi’s apartment prices have surged beyond the affordability of not just low income earners but also middle and high income groups . With average prices exceeding 75 million VND/m² , even young professionals earning 40–50 million VND/month struggle to purchase homes without family support—turning housing into a "privilege" rather than a basic need.

A PARADOX: SUPPLY GROWS, BUT AFFORDABILITY SHRINKS
While 2024 and early 2025 saw a strong recovery , with 40,000 new units launched—the highest in five years— over 95% were priced above 50 million VND/m² . More than 60% of units introduced in early 2025 were in the luxury segment (over 80 million VND/m²) .

"Affordable apartments have nearly vanished from Hanoi’s real estate map," Ms. Mien states. The mid range segment , traditionally the backbone of urban housing, is also shrinking. In provinces bordering Hanoi, prices have surged to 55 million VND/m² —a level once reserved for high end properties. This supply demand mismatch is worsening financial instability for young and middle income buyers.

LONG TERM IMPLICATIONS FOR MARKET SUSTAINABILITY
If investors continue to maintain high prices —driven by low capital costs and high profit expectations—the shortage of reasonably priced apartments will persist . This could exacerbate inequality, limit housing opportunities for workers, and threaten real estate market stability and economic health .

While the government has prioritized social housing development to realign the market with actual demand, the continuous influx of ultra luxury units (priced at hundreds of millions per square meter) makes short term market balance unlikely.